Polling Now Shows Liberals Unlikely To Get Majority

As things stand, the Liberal Party will not gain enough seats to secure a majority that was the rationale behind the snap election on September 20th.

Modelling from election analysis outlet, 338 Canada, projects that as of Saturday, Trudeau’s party would capture 156 seats with the Conservatives getting 117. It also puts the odds of the Liberals getting a majority at just 26.4%.

That minority verdict was also underscored by the updated Poll Tracker from CBC News which noted, “The Liberals continue to hold a lead over the Conservatives in national polling and would likely gain seats if an election were held today, but are slipping further away from being within reach of the 170 seats needed for a majority government.”

Just a note, Mainstreet had the following for their last Nova Scotia election poll:

LIB: 38%
PC: 36%
NDP: 21%
GRN: 3%

The results this morning sit at:

PC: 38.9%
LIB: 36.8%
NDP: 21.1%
GRN: 2.2%

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) August 18, 2021

However, another poll by Toronto-based Forum Research showed the CPC ahead of the Liberals in public opinion data.

The election race tightening was also confirmed by Nik Nanos, founder at Nanos Research, earlier in the week. Their most recent survey shows the Liberals still out in front with 34.2 per cent ballot support, but with the Conservatives inching closer to their lead; now with 32.3 per cent ballot support.

“It’s gone from a double-digit advantage, to a single-digit advantage, to now a horse race between the Conservatives and the Liberals,” Nanos told CTV News Channel.

OUR VIEW:

What started off as a very weak campaign has now gathered momentum for the CPC, and Justin Trudeau appears to be on the back foot. Trudeau is already facing criticism for calling an election during the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and also facing criticism for campaigning while not releasing a party platform (which O’Toole did on Day 2).

Most polls still show the Liberal Party leading the race, but it has certainly been a week to remember for the CPC and hopefully this momentum will continue. In addition, polling is always to be taken with a grain of salt and there is stil time for the CPC to pull off a major upset for the Liberal Party, just as the Progressive Conservative Party in Nova Scotia did a few days ago.

(Photo credit: The Canadian Press/Toronto Star)